Nailing the Variables

This simple sport of ours has myriad variables than can lead you down the path of success, failure, or more often, the confusing land of in between where “this went really well, but I fell apart because of x, y, and z.”

For an activity that seems so easy, so inherent, the real talent comes in learning how to recognize all the controlled variables, then hoping that those out of your control fall in your favor. The ability for the elites to nail all the important factors and adapt to the rest is really what separates the from the rest of us.

After twenty five years of running with some success and some epic fails, I’m attempting to quantify the importance all the variables because of a recent string of races, all with different results. My Lake Sonoma 50M on Apr 13 was a disaster due to severe dehydration and a few other factors. One week later I had a fantastic race at the Mt Diablo 50k for no apparent reason, and a week after that I bonked hard at Folsom Lake 50k, despite hydrating well and playing whack-a-mole with the issues that got me in trouble at Lake Sonoma. Ugh.

Certainly we’re all individuals and what’s important to you may not be to me, but there are basic variables that, after 80 plus interviews and dozens of ultras, seem to be universal. Feel free to comment and tell me that I’m nuts.

I’ve ranked these from 1-5, what I see as the most important (1s) to the least important (5s) variables we can control, followed by those situations that are out of our reach.

Cardio (1)

How in shape is your cardio system? You’ve got to have a strong cardiovascular system to even finish, so this is of paramount importance.

Specificity (1)

If this is a hill course and you’re trained for the flats or the roads, it’s going to be a tough day. Likewise if you’re a specific hillclimber and guys are going out at 6mpm pace, that’s a variable that is going to huuuuurt.

Mental Strength (1)

All the fitness and physical conditioning is good for naught if you’re mentally weak. Everyone gets tired, but if you fall apart when you bonk and DNF, you just paid your entry fee for nothing. Likewise, there are plenty of examples of runners with decent training and conditioning who are mentally powerful and gut out a finish in any condition.

Race conditions (2)

You may be in great shape, but are you conditioned for the race? If you live at sea level and race at altitude without having conditioned for it, you’re in for one hell of a day. Have you run at night? Are you conditioned for that? Are you used to running in heat? In cold? In wind? How do you handle severe exhaustion? That’s all conditioning that can sink your race boat very quickly.

Hydration (2)

Similar and often hand and hand with nutrition, hydrating your body and your muscles will help prevent bonking hard. At Lake Sonoma I was trained, conditioned, and consuming calories, but by mile 32 I was painfully peeing dark brown syrup due to poor hydration on my part. With all the options for hydration nowadays (not to mention the good ol aid station spread), there’s no excuse not to stay hydrated. You (meaning I) shouldn’t screw this up.

Nutrition (2)

Nutrition and caloric intake can and will sink your race if not properly respected. Sure, all the elite guys and gals have their own training, their own kit, their own strengths, but all of them consume good calories during a race in order to fuel their bodies.

Injury (2)

Again, one of those variables that straddles the line. If all the other variables are nailed and you’ve put in months of training, but you screw up your Achilles the week before, that’s going to be a tough race. If you choose to sit this one out for the next race in a couple of weeks, you may have salvaged your season.

Diet (2)

What you put in your body fuels you. Simple, right? Have you been eating normally? Has something changed recently? On a personal note, I had a steak the night before Mt. Diablo (my great performance), and I figured I’d have one before Lake Sonoma, too, as that surely must have been a factor. Not so.

GI Issues (2)

It’s tough to prioritize something that I’ve never encountered (I’ve got an iron gut), but from other runners I know, a bad GI issue can stop you in your tracks. No more bouncing, no more moving, or there’s going be a big messy disaster. However, depending on the severity and cause, many runners with enough experience are able to overcome a GI issue and not let it ruin the day.

Blisters and Asthma (2)

Again, not issues that I have to deal with (despite my f’ed up toes), but you could be trained and conditioned perfectly and a bad asthma attack or a tiny blister can wreck your day. I think of speedster Jean Pommier and his issues with asthma that will swing his 50 mile splits by hours.

Terrain (3)

Terrain and course layout does play into the level of your success, but if all the other variables are nailed down, the layout of the course really shouldn’t hold too much bearing on your success. I run much better on groomed trail where I can see far in front of me as opposed to rocky technical trails with a zillion twists and turns.

Sickness (3)

Sickness is one of those variables that straddles the line between controlled and out of your hands. Showing up to the start line healthy is hugely important, but plenty of races have been finished (and won) by runners fighting a cold, the flu, allergies, and god knows what else.

Soreness (3)

Are you still sore from the 6 hour run last weekend even though you tapered? How does your body rejuvenate itself, and are you providing it with the best conditions to do so? You’ve listened to the podcasts with nutrionists Sunny Blende and Meredith Terranova where they emphasize the importance of recovery recovery recovery?

Stress (3)

Where’s your head? How important is external stress when all you want to concentrate on is nothing and your race? Stephanie Howe provides some great insight in this post from iRunFar.

Weather (4)

Normal weather is important, but if you’ve conditioned yourself well, it shouldn’t play a huge role.

Taper (4)

Again, another variable that’s completely in your control. If you need to taper, taper. If you need to taper and you don’t, you’re going to have to make up that effort somewhere else.

Shoes/Kit (5)

Unless something goes drastically wrong (your shoe falls apart halfway, for example), this really is a variable that you should be able to control almost completely and it not very important. If you’re depending on your $150 shoes to help you run fast, then I’ve got some real estate to sell ya, and likewise, if you blame your kit on a bad race you may want to get involved in team sports where it’s at least a person you can point a finger at.

Non-controllable Variables

This is again where the real talent comes in…that’s the ability to adapt to a bad situation and either neutralize it or turn it in your favor.

Sudden Illness

After months of training your body, conditioning your mind, anxiety, testing your kit, and sacrificing time with your family and friends, you get food poisoning or another sickness the night before. Do you stay up all night puking your guts out to get it out of your system, do you risk starting a race where you’ll likely barf and poop all over yourself, or do you take a DNS?

Wipe Out!

You take a header on a downhill and severely screw yourself up. Again, there are myriad stories of runners who’ve finished races with some severely disfigured limbs. Whether or not that’s important to you is your thing.

Crazy Weather

In Northern California it seems that the weather is temperate until that very last week of June, when the thermometer spikes and the avg temp jumps 20 degrees, right in time for Western States. If you get a freak weather pattern, there’s really not much that could have been done, or be done during the race. Still, runners get through it and endure the craziness.

Conclusion

So what does all this mean? Nailing down all the variables and freak occurrences is a talent unto itself. Aside from basic running talent, the ability to play whack-a-mole with diet, training, shoes, rain, wind, hills, etc is really what matters when we’re comparing our bad races to our great performances. Even then, there’s still the X factor that we’ll never comprehend, and perhaps that’s where the real secrets lie.

Thoughts? Do my rankings look like yours? What variables did I miss?

jamie says:

May 1, 2013 at 8:28 am

Sleep and Physical strength (legs, core, etc.) both need to go up neer the top. I keep double checking because I feel like you must have them there somewhere. And if blisters and asthma are on the list, so is chafing.

eric says:

May 1, 2013 at 9:02 am

Sleep should be on there, you’re right.
Physical strenght, yeah, I guess, but for me it’d be a 3 at best. I’ve had success without having any physical strength like you describe.
Chafing…definitely! You can have everything lined up, but if your crotch is raw, it’s over!

1. jamie says:
  
  May 1, 2013 at 11:38 am
  
  To some extent, “specificity” overlaps with physical strength. Certainly for hills specificity involves leg strength, and for rocky technical stuff, specific training will involve developing balance and stability from the ankles up to the core.
  So with some of these variables, I might break them up differently and give them different labels. But we might be getting at the same thing. (like I’d want mental toughness to be broad enough to include having a strong motivation to be out there in the first place).
  The other thing that jumps out at me is strategy/race plan/pacing. I think this is a variable in itself and its clearly within your control. You can show up with a good plan, a bad plan, or no plan at all. Show up with the wrong plan and you could be looking at a very bad day.

George Katsikaris says:

May 1, 2013 at 8:29 am

without even reading the article yet I have the answer: more booze!

Gene Graham says:

May 1, 2013 at 12:21 pm

Great article; I have nothing to add that hasn’t been suggested, just an observation. In your introduction, you said you raced 50-miler, and two 50K events over 3 consecutive weekends…You’re a monster! It seems like, with that kind of schedule, you might find it difficult to control several of the factors you listed. For example, taper and specificity, perhaps soreness. I’m really just speaking for myself, I guess, since you’re obviously a very capable runner.

eric says:

May 1, 2013 at 3:06 pm

Gene-I only mentioned the 3 races because it shows that I was in relatively the same shape and they were run in the same season, subtracting at least a few other factors from the equation.
But the point is that what factors led to my solid performance a week after my disaster at Sonoma? How do we account for the good ones?

Ken says:

May 1, 2013 at 2:08 pm

Yep, cannot omit chafing…

Expectations would be another variable within our control. How often do you hear about an alite who dropped because his expectations were not being met? I know many mid-to-back-packers who have suffered in the name of un-met expectations, whether they DNF’d or not. In fact, I can say that my ultra experiences became much more satisfying when I started forming realistic and achievable expectations.

eric says:

May 1, 2013 at 3:06 pm

Ken-I’d put expectations in the same category as “mental strength.” For me it’s all the same.

Martha says:

May 1, 2013 at 5:24 pm

That is a great list! Every item on it should be considered before every ultra. One other possible variable is Race Info Prep. This is one that can be totally under the runner’s control if he/she takes the time to do it. Read a few race reports and have at least some knowledge of the course (i.e., where are the big climbs, how far between aid stations, directions to start, etc.).

Heath says:

May 3, 2013 at 5:43 am

Great article, my favorite part though is the amazing illustration of gastrointestinal issues.