Ultramarathon Daily News | Mon, Dec 9

iRunFar: All the results from trail and ultramarathon events from this past week. Hot takes:

Pat Reagan’s 12:21 at Brazos Bend 100 is smooooking fast! And hey, SteelTown Runner gets his first mention!
Also at BB100, Julie Kheyfets runs 4 hours faster than last year to win after race leader Michele Yates took a DNF at mile 90 something.
Denise Bourassa takes second at Brazos…she’s been running well for long and just keeps getting it done.
…much like Karl Speedgoat Meltzer. I was watching the calendar and waiting for Karl to finish–and win–another 100 miler for his annual streak and he got it done at the Devil Dog Ultra in Tennessee.
Jane Kibii was mentioned as winning CIM’s women’s race. Note that she also won the hugely popular Run to Feed the Hungry over Thanksgiving….She ran the 5k, grabbed a drink, headed over to the 10k start, and won that too.

Podium Runner: You know what it’s like to go to a race for a few years and you notice little changes here and there? Amby Burfoot has run the same race for 57 years straight.

MSN: Athletes can hear better.

Broken Arrow Skyrace registration opens today. Don’t wait until your distance is sold out!

Joe Uhan: Joe lays out the case why the Western States Lottery is mathematically unsustainable, and that the nightmare scenario is bearing down on us quickly. My hot takes:

Joe’s taken a lot of sh*t from anonymous trolls for pushing this issue, and those attacks have been unfair. OOJ’s proposals, ideas, and warnings have all been laid out well calmly and clearly and they deserve our attention.
I’ve always advocated for tightening up the qualifiers as a means to limit the lottery, but Joe’s analysis indicates that that approach would have minimal effect on the results.
The link above is to why the math won’t work…he’ll be posting his plan soon and I’m anxious to check that out. How would you change it?
It wouldn’t surprise me if the WSER Board bows to woke pressure to reserve spots for women and it’s their right to do that. But whoa, that’ll make the lottery so much more confusing and restrictive.

CIM was this weekend, and it seemed the MUT community was more focused on it than any other race. Is it just me living near the race route, or has California Int’l Marathon become the #1 road marathon for the MUT community? And if it’s the latter, why? Is it because it shares the weekend with the WS lottery? It’s time of year? What’s the reason?

Fast Women: Alison covers all the results from the female perspective. Great analysis of Katelyn Tuohy’s final HS race and how she’s handled the pressure.

Liza Howard: Tough time at CIM, but gears up for the next adventure.

iRunFar: Who’s already in, who’s declined, and who got pulled for the Western States Endurance Run.

Also out at CIM: Anyone else see Scott Jurek guiding Rich Hunter? Two incredible guys and champions of our community.

Dude, don’t smack the reporter on the butt when you run by. Have some class and do better.

14 Responses to "Ultramarathon Daily News | Mon, Dec 9"

Paul says:

December 9, 2019 at 8:18 am

I like Joe’s analysis and look forward to his recommendations. I do think he misses one key aspect. About half the first year entrants enter on a whim. In other words, they happened to do a race that gave them a qualifier so they threw their name into the lottery but they are not committed to re-qualifying year after year. This is easily seen by the fact that consistently the number of second year lottery entrants is about half the number of first year. The rate of decay to years three and beyond is much less.

This suggests a strategy that I can’t take credit for (read it on TAUR). Require at least two, maybe three consecutive years of qualifiers to enter the lottery.

My solution, which many do not like, is to raise the price until demand equals supply. That is the way to allocate a scarce resource and ensure it goes to those who get the most value from it.

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KS Petty says:

December 9, 2019 at 8:26 am

I usually see you supporting at CIM, but this is the first time I saw the alpine horn. Although it’s easier to haul it to Fair Oaks Blvd. than up the escarpment, its presence was noted (and certainly appreciated) by Adam Kimble and me. Thanks for bringing the funk to the road.

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1. eric schranz says:
  
  December 9, 2019 at 8:40 am
  
  Much easier to get to Fair Oaks Blvd! What a great day of racing! Were you with Adam? How’d you do?
  
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Wyatt Yates says:

December 9, 2019 at 8:54 am

Michele dropped around mile 93 and was taken to the hospital. Has rhabdomyolysis. She’s still in the hospital but we are hopeful that she will be released in the next couple days.

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1. eric schranz says:
  
  December 9, 2019 at 8:56 am
  
  Ack! Hope she’s doing OK. Please let us know when she’s OK. What a year…
  
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KS Petty says:

December 9, 2019 at 10:44 am

I was co-lead with Adam. We took the 3-hour signs across the line in 2:59:42.

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Dan F says:

December 9, 2019 at 11:29 am

Devil Dog takes place in Prince William State Park in Virginia, just outside of Dumfries and the DC metro, not Tennessee. It’s a great local race that while not run by VHTRC, involves a lot of its members.

I’ll have to take a look at Uhan’s blog. I miraculously got into WS over the weekend on a 4th year attempt. I’m so glad it finally happened as I’m skeptical my running will be as involved in the coming years (combined with increased difficulty of the lottery). Anyway, I’m still on cloud nine regarding it!

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Zach Hanna (@ZachHanna) says:

December 9, 2019 at 11:31 am

re: WSER 100 Lottery

I don’t think raising the price does it. Look at Ironman. Plenty of races. Plenty of spots. And plenty of people that’ll pay $800+ to race. I also don’t like what that does to the race.

While watching the lottery, hoping my wife’s or my ticket would be drawn (neither were – same as the previous 3 years), I still felt joy when an entrant with more tickets than I was drawn. I can’t say I had the same feeling when a first year entrant was pulled.

Looking at those 3250 entrants and the fact there are less than half as many 2nd yr entrants (with similar downward trajectory for subsequent years) shows the repeat entrants are demonstrably increasingly more dedicated to gaining entry.

And even though this is all just a slice in time which lines up with my current position in the lottery, I’m not ashamed for feeling the lottery should favor those veteran lottery entrants.

I’m looking forward to reading Joe’s recommendations. Maybe he can solve the difficult question of who deserves entry more.

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Andrew says:

December 9, 2019 at 5:58 pm

I guess I’m confused as to why a lottery based race would reserve spots for women (other than the Top 10 and golden ticket winners it already does it for). That just sounds completely ridiculous. It’s entirely odds based and 95+% of the qualifying races are easy to register for. I must be missing something.

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Dean says:

December 10, 2019 at 2:57 am

Speedgoat got it done in October. He won Cloudsplitter 100

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1. eric schranz says:
  
  December 10, 2019 at 5:20 am
  
  Ah, duh. Thanks. This one was just for fun I guess.
  
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Mark says:

December 10, 2019 at 5:58 am

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2019/12/08/reporter-blasts-man-who-slapped-her-butt-live-tv-you-violated-objectified-embarrassed-me/

They identified the jerk that groped the reporter. Personally, I hope he his charged with a misdemeanor.

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Melinda says:

December 10, 2019 at 7:40 am

I’m a local and I agree that CIM seems to be big with MUT in this area. I used to run marathons as a teenager and in my early 20’s (last time I ran CiM was probably 2008) and I don’t remember any trail runners in it, but I’ve been told it’s changed a lot. The last couple of years it seems all my trail running friends are running CIM. Actually made me wonder whether I should run it again. both to see whether I can beat my PR from over 10 years ago (I wasn’t a speedy marathoner), and to see whether focusing on a road marathon once a year improves my leg speed that I had when I first started MUT, but I’m finding harder and harder to keep.

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Melinda says:

December 10, 2019 at 7:52 am

On the western states lottery thing. I agree they have a problem. I agree with most of Joe’s analysis. I’m a fourth year lottery (3 years of tickets because I took a bye for 2018 lottery) and didn’t get in. Which I’m grateful for – I had a brain tumor and proton treatment beginning of last year and if I got in for the 2020 race, it’s doubtful with my inconsistent training over the last year that I would finish. Much better for me to get in in 2021 with that episode 18 months behind me. But did I qualify and enter this year to keep my string of tickets going? You bet. But shouldn’t only the people who want to run THAT year be in the lottery? I don’t know how to fix the problem and I’m interested in what joe comes up with. Raising the price isn’t something I’d like to see. Quite honestly, it would weed me out probably? It’s already on the cusp of what I consider affordable for a single race. Almost 500 bucks once you calculate in ultra sign up fees. At that point I guess I keep riding Tevis and running along side my horse, or just run the course on my own. I’m in my mid 30’s with a small child, humongous student loans, and a in general trying to be financially stable. In my 20’s I could have “paid any price”. Maybe in the coming decades with more stability I could “pay any price”. But now in my 30’s? Nah. So maybe that’s the point and people like me wouldn’t enter. But it’s a shame to make it a race for the elites and the rich.

at this point, not seeing Joe’s other recommendations I like the idea of tightening up the qualifiers. The only unintended consequence I see for that is those races being increasingly hard to get into. So, The number of qualifiers would probably not be able to be decreased, but perhaps look at what races the entrants are using to qualify and which ones produce the most DNF’s – ie which ones are not preparing the entrants well. I love Rio (I’m local) and I’ve used it twice to qualify, but is it really proving my ability to run WS100? Same for some other 100k/100 milers that are on their list. Yet some smaller races I do “just because I want to” I get done with and say “WOW, now THAT race is a prep race for WS100.”

I’m just rambling here. I don’t have the answers. I’m not smart enough to come up with another plan. But I’m interested in what others come up with. In the meantime I love the trail and will keep running on it as much as I can, even if that means never seeing it on race day.

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